Rough day that somehow ended with profit

Went to PJ's to grind with him for a bit, because it's always better to yell at a computer screen with another person doing the same thing. Stopped registering after around 2-2.5 hours so we could take a break and get some food. Couldn't get ANYTHING going in those first 2 hours, I really thought I was gonna go the entire set without even cashing in a single game. Managed to string together a couple final tables toward the end of the set though, and finished with 40 games and $22.88 profit for 26% ROI. Not stellar or anything, but profit is profit, so whatever.

That brings my overall total profit for these up to $420.92 and 61.1% ROI. Still probably running a little hot, I expect after a thousand more games that will be lower unless I continue to run hot.

I'm also almost up to $1k lifetime profit on Stars. Currently at $921, with a lot of that coming this month. If I play enough tomorrow I could get there, but more than likely I'll have to wait until next week (might not even play at all tomorrow now that I think about it).

Don't really have any hands that are too interesting to post. This hand isn't necessarily "interesting", but it's probably the most interesting hand I've got from today, so whatever.

Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1000/t2000 Blinds + t200 - 6 players

DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

00 J€$€ 00 (MP): t19411 M = 4.62

Evilstorm (CO): t32302 M = 7.69

Hero (BTN): t8703 M = 2.07

SmOLL10 (SB): t16310 M = 3.88

xCANMANx (BB): t15077 M = 3.59

moerle 14 (UTG): t46121 M = 10.98

Pre Flop: (t4200) Hero is BTN with 4 J

3 folds, Hero raises to t8503 all in, 1 fold, xCANMANx calls t6503

Flop: (t19206) 5 T 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t19206) 9 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t19206) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t19206

Hero shows 4 J (a flush, Jack high)

xCANMANx shows 9 K (a pair of Nines)

Hero wins t19206

Just about all of the people that play these $2/180s would fold this hand, but they are wrong in doing so. Nash equilibrium has us pushing 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q6o+ J5s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 97s+ 87s. So technically, J4s is just out of that range, and so we shouldn't push here. BUT, that range is based on the assumption that SB is calling with 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q4s+ Q8o+ J7x+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o+ 97s+ 87s 76s, and if SB folds then BB calling 87% of hands (it also says BB should overcall 35% of hands which I think is retardedly loose, but whatever). I highly highly highly doubt either of them are calling that wide. SB is a reg that I see at multiple tables during my sets, but he mass multitables for a single digit ROI. So I doubt he has time to look at this spot and say to himself "I should be calling with my 97s". BB is a random, so I assume he's a losing player (and looking him up real quick while posting this shows me that yes he is), meaning he's more than likely going to be calling way too tight here. He's getting about 2:1 on a call, and I should be shoving pretty wide (which I obviously am), so there isn't really many hands he should be folding. I have a feeling he's not calling too much wider than the K9s that he had here, but I was focusing on other tables at the time of this hand so I don't know if he really thought about it too hard or not.

That paragraph was basically a long way of saying even though Nash equilibrium says this is (barely) a fold, it's still a good shove since I'm 99.9% sure they're not calling Nash. When they call tighter than they should, you can profitably shove more hands.

I got no where near my 50 games/day goal for this weekend, so I don't know how it's gonna go in November. I pretty much have to hit at least 675 games no matter what, which isn't really a lot, but I've just been so unmotivated to grind lately. I don't know, hopefully something clicks next weekend and I can at least get a decent chunk of those games knocked out.